01
The AKME Era — A Decision-by-Decision Autopsy
Under Artūras Karnišovas and Marc Eversley, the Bulls went 224–254 over six seasons, making the playoffs just once — a five-game first-round exit to Milwaukee in 2021–22. The team hovered in no-man’s land: never good enough to contend, never bad enough to secure the draft positioning that could fundamentally change the franchise. On April 6, 2026, Bulls CEO Michael Reinsdorf dismissed both with four games remaining in the season.
Key decisions that defined the era
The Vučević Trade (2021)
Asset mismanagement
Surrendered Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr., and two first-round picks — which became Franz Wagner and Jett Howard — for Vučević. The Bulls also absorbed Al-Farouq Aminu’s contract, which then forced the inclusion of Thad Young as salary filler in the DeRozan trade. The Spurs flipped Young for a first-round pick. Assets converting to liabilities at every step.
Gafford and Markkanen — Sold at the Bottom
Asset mismanagement
Daniel Gafford — a high-motor rim protector with All-Defense upside — was dealt for essentially Javonte Green. Lauri Markkanen, now an All-Star in Utah, was moved for Derrick Jones Jr. and a pick that still has not conveyed. Both were bottom-of-market sells on players whose value only increased.
Patrick Williams — #4 Pick, Then the Extension
Draft + extension misstep
Selecting Williams with the 4th overall pick in 2020 was a reach for a one-and-done freshman averaging 9.2 points in limited minutes. Locking him into a 5-year, $90M extension before he demonstrated requisite production turned a correctable mistake into a multi-year structural problem.
The Caruso–Giddey Trade
Defensible, but costly
Giddey was at a reputational nadir when the deal was made, which made it defensible in isolation. But Caruso was a top-15 perimeter defender who went on to contribute to a championship in OKC. A more aggressive front office extracts draft capital rather than accepting a straight swap.
Moving on from the Core Too Late
Timing failure
The most damaging pattern of the era. By the time Karnišovas committed to pivoting away from the LaVine–DeRozan–Vučević window, the value that core could generate had collapsed. The team was left with neither contention nor a clear rebuild path — the definition of being trapped.
02
Team Context — Cap Architecture & On-Court Profile
Chicago’s financial position is the central fact of this offseason. Their committed salary is concentrated in a handful of players, giving the organization more flexibility to reshape its roster in a single summer than nearly any franchise in the league — and crucially, they sit $131.6M below the second apron, preserving every CBA tool available.
Committed contracts — 2026–27
Advanced statistical profile — 2025–26
Offensive rating
114.3
20th of 30
Defensive rating
117.9
21st of 30
Net rating
–3.6
22nd of 30
Key takeaway: Chicago is elite in pace (2nd) and ball security (8th in TOV%) — and below average in every efficiency metric. The gap between what they generate and what they convert is the central roster problem. OKC’s superior TS%, three-point volume, and defensive rating all stem from having a rim-protecting center and two-way wings — Chicago’s precise areas of need.
03
Strategic Framework
Does Billy Donovan stay?
Retain
Donovan’s up-tempo system is well-suited to Giddey and Buzelis, his communication with young players is strong, and Reinsdorf has been emphatic about his support. The basketball case for retention is real. The condition must be alignment — if the new GM’s vision is incompatible with Donovan’s system, that conversation needs to happen before contracts are signed.
Compete or rebuild?
Competitive rebuild
The Bulls should not tank. Ownership won’t support it, the proposed lottery reform removes the mathematical incentive, and the young core benefits from competitive development. Target a 35–45 win range — good enough to develop meaningful habits, positioned well in the lottery for what projects to be a strong 2027 class.
On lottery reform: A Board of Governors vote on May 28, 2026 would expand the lottery to 18 teams and give the bottom 10 non-playoff teams identical 8% odds at the No. 1 pick. If passed, the incremental benefit of finishing with the worst record disappears entirely — structurally validating a “competitive rebuild” approach for franchises like Chicago.
Summary — what the team needs
04
Roster Decisions
Young core — the building blocks
Matas Buzelis
PF · Age 21 · $5.7M
41-point breakout performance, consistent two-way flashes. Option exercised immediately — clearest organizational signal of confidence. Best cap situation on the roster.
Josh Giddey
PG · Age 22 · $25M
14.6 pts, 8.1 reb, 7.2 ast on career-best splits (46.5/37.8/78.1). Near triple-double threat, but below-average defender. At $25M on a rising cap, not an albatross — but the FO must build around his profile with eyes open.
Noa Essengue
SF · Age 19 · $5.7M
12th overall pick in 2025. Missed most of this season due to injury, which complicates evaluation but does not diminish long-term profile. Team-friendly terms through end of the decade.
05
Free Agency Targets
Priority #1 — Center: The most critical acquisition analytically, structurally, and competitively. Without a rim protector, the defensive identity of this team cannot improve regardless of what else is added.
Priority #2 — Shot-Creating Wing: A versatile wing who can defend multiple positions, shoot from three, and create independently. The profile most in demand across the league.
06
Taking on Unwanted Contracts — Draft Capital Play
There is a third avenue of roster construction the Bulls are uniquely positioned to execute: using their surplus cap space as currency to absorb bloated contracts from distressed teams, extracting first-round draft picks in return. With $111.5M in available space, Chicago is the most attractive landing spot for those conversations in the league.
The historical blueprint: Sam Presti wrote this playbook during OKC’s 2020–23 rebuild — taking on Al Horford’s contract from Philadelphia, receiving a first-round pick in return, then repeating the strategy systematically. Presti’s insight was simple: cap space is an asset and should be treated like one. The Bulls have never operated this way. Notably, it is Presti’s Thunder who now find themselves on the other side of the table.
Teams that will be making calls
OKC Thunder
~$28M+ over 2nd apron
Supermax extensions for Williams + Holmgren (SGA kicks in 2027–28). Need to move salary this summer. Most logical trade partner.
Denver Nuggets
$215M+ committed
Jokic ~$60M, Murray ~$50M, Braun’s new 5-year extension on the books. Enormous financial pressure to shed salary wherever possible.
Sacramento + Others
Over both aprons
Sacramento in financial disarray. Minnesota and Cleveland in uncomfortable proximity to apron thresholds. All will be making calls.
The framework — how to execute it right
1
Contract length is the most critical variable. Aggressive on 1–2 year absorptions. Disciplined to the point of refusal on anything 4–5 years. Patrick Williams is already one cautionary tale on this roster.
2
Pick quality must be commensurate. The floor should be an unprotected or lightly protected first from a team still expected to compete. A late first from OKC or Denver in 2028–29 has real value. Heavily protected picks dilute the transaction to irrelevance.
3
The opportunity cost is essentially zero. The Bulls must reach the $147M salary floor regardless. Taking on a $20–25M two-year contract while receiving a first-round pick is filling a roster spot they were already obligated to fill — and getting paid a draft asset to do it.
07
The 2026 Draft
The 2026 draft is widely regarded as one of the deepest in recent memory. The consensus top tier — AJ Dybantsa (BYU), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), and Cameron Boozer (Duke) — represents legitimate franchise-altering talent. Chicago holds the 9th pick at 4.5% odds at No. 1, plus Portland’s first (if 15–30), and their own picks through 2031.
Top prospects — 2026 class
Consensus #1
AJ Dybantsa
BYU · Franchise-altering wing talent. The clear consensus top prospect heading into the lottery.
Consensus #2
Darryn Peterson
Kansas · Elite guard prospect with two-way upside. Top-tier by any evaluation framework.
Consensus #3
Cameron Boozer
Duke · High-floor big with offensive versatility. Legitimate franchise piece at the right spot.
Scenario planning
Core draft philosophy: Take the best available player at every selection, without regard to positional need. This is a team that lacks talent first and specific positions second. The instinct to draft for need — “we need a center, so we’ll take the best available center even if a superior wing is on the board” — is the kind of logic that costs teams decades. Free agency and trades address positional need. The draft is for acquiring talent.
08
Conclusion
Chicago Bulls — 2026 Offseason Report · By Armaan Sharma
April 2026 · For distribution
Armaan Sharma 