Portfolio Project · Sports Analytics
UCLA Men’s Basketball
NIL & Roster Model
A GM-style operating model that treats UCLA’s basketball program like a salary-capped franchise — valuing players, scoring portal decisions, and building a defensible 2026-27 roster on a $6.2M budget.
The Problem
UCLA can’t out-spend.
It has to out-construct.
The House v. NCAA settlement (July 2025) let schools pay athletes directly for the first time — up to $21.3M per year. UCLA committed to the full cap. But with a $6.2M MBB budget, they sit at the Power Four median, well below Kentucky’s $22M war chest.
This project builds the analytical tools a front office actually needs to compete at a structural disadvantage: a player valuation model calibrated against real contracts, a Monte Carlo portal decision engine, and a cap-constrained roster optimizer.
2025-26 MBB Roster Spend
UCLA’s $6.2M puts them at the Power Four median. The edge has to come from construction quality, not spending power.
What’s Inside
Five tools. One framework.
Every section solves a specific decision a real front office faces. Start with the budget, price a player, evaluate a portal target, build a roster, then pick the right contract structure.
Budget Allocation
Walks from the $21.3M House settlement cap through UCLA’s sport-share formula to a $6.2M MBB budget. Every number is sourced — AD Jarmond’s commitment, the Wilken back-damages formula, Big Ten media revenue.
2026-27 MBB Budget
Player Valuation Model
Select a player’s production tier, position, eligibility, and portal demand. The model returns a dollar estimate, confidence band, and reservation price — all from four dropdowns, no spreadsheet required.
Example — Senior PG, 5+ P4 offers
Range: $2,524,500 — $3,415,500
Portal Decision Engine
Enter a target’s numbers and get a MATCH / COUNTER / PASS recommendation backed by 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The output is a probability distribution — not just a recommendation, but a confidence level.
Rob Wright III — BYU PG (real 2026 scenario)
Pursue — but negotiate below the $2.0M asking price
Cap Sheet & Roster Builder
Fifteen slots, dollars assigned to each, rationale for every decision. Built on the Balanced Veteran archetype — three proven starters, no mega-contract, coherent system fit. Budget bar updates live as you build.
Starting five — proposed 2026-27
Contract Strategy
Written strategic analysis covering the three NIL contract structures, when to use each, and a tier × duration recommendation matrix. How to gain a structural edge when you can’t outspend the competition.
Tier × Duration matrix
On methodology
“The methodology is more valuable than any single output — every dollar figure is tagged as confirmed, modeled, or assumed. Nothing is made up.”
down from 34% in v1
Built with
The stack
Ready to explore it?
The full app is live. Price a player, run a portal scenario, build your own roster.
▶ Open the App
Armaan Sharma 